Retail enters the era of "control economy": growth is highly concentrated in digital channels

Event Background

According to the latest report from Euromonitor International, global retail grew only 2% in real terms in 2025, but e-commerce channels contributed approximately 80% of total incremental growth. Growth is highly concentrated in a few digital platforms and decision systems, rather than being widely distributed across the entire retail ecosystem. Euromonitor noted in the report: "Growth has not disappeared, but it is concentrating into fewer channels, fewer platforms, and increasingly fewer decision systems."

This trend signals a fundamental shift in the nature of retail competition—from pursuing scale and coverage toward "control" over pricing, product discovery, margins, and consumer decision paths. The report argues that 2026 is not simply a phase of omnichannel optimization; the complexity of the ecosystem demands a reset in competitive strategy. Companies that fail to gain influence in these critical areas will face long-term decline.

Global Macro Pressures and Supply Chain Restructuring

Retail operations are increasingly impacted by intensifying geopolitical fragmentation and tightening trade rules. The US repeal of the de minimis exemption, along with similar regulatory changes in the UK, Japan, and the EU, are increasing cross-border operational costs. Euromonitor International's *Industry Voices Survey 2025* shows that 62% of industry professionals expect global tariff changes to affect their business within 12 months.

Specific cost pressures include: war risk surcharges of up to $1,500–$4,000 per shipping container, rising fuel costs, and a 10–14 day increase in shipping time due to route diversions. These pressures have directly impacted retail: platforms like Temu have extended delivery windows, and Inditex reported apparel delays caused by disruptions in air freight hubs in the Gulf region. Although companies are attempting to diversify sourcing and optimize efficiency models, analysts warn that traditional globalization strategies are facing structural pressures.

Structural Shifts in Consumer Behavior

Consumer behavior is shifting from short-term inflation responses to sustained cost-cutting. Euromonitor International's *Voice of the Consumer: Lifestyles Survey* (January–February 2026) shows that 47% of global consumers plan to save more in the next 12 months, indicating that price sensitivity is becoming a structural, long-term behavioral trait rather than a temporary reaction to inflation.

Ultra-low-price digital platforms, algorithm-driven price transparency, and slower growth in non-essential spending are all reinforcing this trend. Consumers are increasingly influenced by ultra-low-price digital platforms and algorithm-driven price transparency, with overall growth in non-essential spending slowing. In response, retailers are expanding tiered product portfolios—increasing private labels, loyalty-driven value ecosystems, and brand extensions. The report emphasizes: "Retailers must choose where to compete on price and where to compete on differentiation. Attempting to defend both positions simultaneously has proven unsustainable."

AI as the New Control LayerArtificial intelligence is becoming one of the most disruptive forces in retail — not only as an operational tool, but as a new layer controlling product visibility and discovery. Nearly 50% of businesses report AI has already impacted their operations, with 42% planning to increase AI investments. AI is deployed in areas such as pricing automation, inventory management, supply chain optimization, and customer targeting.

However, a more significant shift is occurring in product discovery: generative AI systems are increasingly shaping what consumers "see" and ultimately "buy." In 2025, recommendation traffic from AI-driven e-commerce platforms grew by 304%, far outpacing the growth rate of traditional traffic channels. As a result, product visibility is increasingly mediated by AI systems rather than directly controlled by retailers or marketplace platforms.

• "The key challenge for retail leaders is no longer just how to grow, but how to remain discoverable, preferable, and profitable in a system they do not fully control," Euromonitor concluded in its report.Beneficiaries:
• E-commerce platforms with strong AI capabilities and data accumulation (e.g., Amazon, Temu, SHEIN)
• Companies providing AI recommendation technologies (e.g., Google Cloud AI, Shopify AI tools)
• Large retailers that can quickly integrate layered product portfolios (Walmart, Target)

• Facing challenges:
• Traditional department stores and brick-and-mortar retailers, lacking digital control
• Small and medium-sized independent e-commerce players, unable to afford platform advertising costs and AI technology investments
• Brands relying on low-price strategies but lacking an ecosystem

The competitive landscape is shifting from "platform vs. retailer" to "AI control layer vs. traditional channels." Social platforms like TikTok and Meta are also entering the e-commerce space through AI recommendations, further intensifying competition.

Data and Regulatory Impact

Growth concentration and the AI control layer have drawn regulatory attention. Antitrust authorities in various countries may strengthen scrutiny of "self-preferencing" and algorithmic bias. The EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Artificial Intelligence Act have already placed restrictions on platform behavior, while the U.S. FTC is also investigating AI pricing algorithms. Cross-border data flow rules (e.g., GDPR) may limit the use of training data for AI models, thereby affecting recommendation quality. Future regulatory directions may include: requiring transparency in AI recommendation systems, prohibiting price discrimination through algorithms, and ensuring fair access to platform data for small businesses.

Global Trends Observation

The "control economy" is not a short-term event but an inevitable outcome of the convergence of the platform economy and the AI economy. As AI technology matures, the "right to allocate attention" in the digital economy will increasingly be determined by algorithms rather than traditional marketing or channel layout. This trend will reshape retail, advertising, logistics, and even the entire consumer goods industry. Meanwhile, under the trend of digital sovereignty, countries may promote localized data storage and AI regulation, imposing new requirements on global retail operations.

DigitalEcoNews Insight

From the editorial perspective, Euromonitor's report reveals a profound structural shift: retail growth is rapidly concentrating from a widely distributed, highly fragmented state into "control points" dominated by AI and digital platforms. The economic significance of this phenomenon is that the traditional retail value chain is being redefined—whoever controls user discovery controls growth.

For enterprises, this means that digitalization can no longer be viewed as a mere channel supplement but must be regarded as a core competitive strategy. AI is not just an efficiency tool but a "gatekeeper" that determines whether products can be seen by consumers. Companies need to reassess their bargaining power within the platform ecosystem, or invest in building their own data networks and AI capabilities to reduce reliance on third-party platforms.The revelation for the future digital economy landscape is that the power structure of the digital economy is evolving from a binary "platform-user" relationship to a triangular "platform-AI-user" relationship. AI, as a new infrastructure layer, will reshape the underlying rules of business competition. In this context, data governance, AI regulation, and antitrust policies will become key levers influencing the direction of the global digital economy.