Retail enters the "control economy": growth accelerates concentration in digital channels.

Event Background

The global retail industry is undergoing a structural transformation. According to the latest report from Euromonitor International, global retail real growth is only 2% in 2025, but e-commerce channels contributed approximately 80% of the total growth. This means growth has become highly concentrated in a few digital platforms and decision-making systems, rather than being evenly distributed across the retail ecosystem. The report clearly states: "Growth has not disappeared, but it has become concentrated in fewer channels, fewer platforms, and an increasingly limited number of decision-making systems."

Behind this trend lies a fundamental change in competitive logic—shifting from past pursuits of store expansion and market share to comprehensive control over pricing power, product discovery, profit margins, and consumer decision-making processes. Euromonitor International calls 2026 the year of "competitive reset," warning that companies unable to establish influence in these areas will face long-term decline risks.

Digital Economy Analysis

User Behavior and Platform Dependence

Consumer behavior is shifting from short-term responses to inflation toward long-term cost reduction. Euromonitor International's "Voice of the Consumer: Lifestyles Survey" (January–February 2026) shows that 47% of global consumers plan to save more money in the next 12 months, with price sensitivity evolving into a structural behavior.

Ultra-low-cost digital platforms, algorithm-driven price transparency, and slowing growth in discretionary spending collectively reinforce this trend. Consumers are increasingly engaging with e-commerce platforms that offer extreme value for money (such as Temu, SHEIN, etc.), which use algorithmic recommendations to precisely capture demand.

Traffic and Data Value

Traditional traffic channels are experiencing sluggish growth, while AI-driven e-commerce recommendation traffic grew 304% in 2025, far exceeding other channels. This data indicates that consumers' discovery paths are being redefined by AI systems. The ability of platforms and retailers to control data directly determines their visibility in the digital ecosystem.

Data value is therefore being reassessed: enterprises with high-quality consumption data and AI recommendation models can more effectively influence user decisions, creating network effects and barriers.

Business Model Observations

Platform Models and Ecosystem Control

The trend of retail growth concentrating on a few digital platforms reinforces the "winner-takes-all" characteristics of the platform economy. Platforms control product ranking, pricing strategies, and personalized recommendations through algorithms, effectively gaining control upstream of the user decision chain. Retailers that cannot secure exposure on these platforms are effectively excluded from the core transaction flow.

AI Commercialization ModelsAI is evolving from an operational tool into a new control layer. Nearly 50% of enterprises say AI has impacted their business, and 42% plan to increase AI investment. AI is widely used in pricing automation, inventory management, supply chain optimization, and customer targeting. But the more critical change is occurring in the discovery phase: generative AI systems are progressively shaping what consumers see and ultimately what they buy. A 304% surge in AI-recommended traffic signals that AI commercialization in retail has entered an explosive phase.

Subscription and Loyalty Models

To address price sensitivity, retailers are expanding tiered product portfolios—strengthening private labels, building value ecosystems driven by loyalty, and launching multi-brand extensions. For example, membership programs offering exclusive discounts or value-added services are used to lock in high-value customers.

Market Competition Analysis

Intensifying Platform Competition

The gap between traditional retailers and digital-native platforms is widening. Platforms like Temu are expanding rapidly through ultra-low prices and algorithm-driven strategies, while traditional fashion giants like Inditex face shipping delays due to air freight disruptions. Euromonitor International emphasizes that retailers must choose whether to compete on price or differentiation; attempting to defend both fronts is no longer sustainable.

Who Benefits? Who Faces Challenges?

Beneficiaries: Platforms with strong AI recommendation capabilities, data accumulation, and supply chain resilience (e.g., Amazon, ByteDance’s e-commerce division, Alibaba). Meanwhile, retail giants that effectively leverage AI to optimize operations (e.g., Walmart, Costco) may also maintain their lead.

Those challenged: Small and medium-sized retailers that rely on traditional offline channels and lack sufficient digital investment, as well as brand companies that have failed to establish a data feedback loop. Additionally, retailers overly dependent on a single platform face the risk of reduced bargaining power.

Data and Regulatory Impact

Trade Rule Shocks

Geopolitical and trade rule changes are reshaping retail supply chains. The U.S. elimination of the de minimis exemption, along with similar regulatory adjustments in the UK, Japan, and the EU, have increased cross-border logistics costs. War surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container, rising fuel costs, and route diversions extending transit times by 10–14 days—these direct costs will be passed on to retail prices and profit models.

Future Regulatory Directions

As AI recommendation systems grow in influence within retail, regulators may focus on algorithmic transparency, data privacy, and competitive fairness. The EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) and AI Act have already introduced transparency requirements for platform recommendation systems. Globally, regulatory discussions on AI-driven pricing and recommendations are expected to accelerate.

Global Trend Observations

The Convergence of AI Economy and RetailThe 304% growth in AI-recommended traffic marks the substantial implementation of the "AI economy" in the retail sector. In the future, AI will not only be an efficiency tool but also a core commercial infrastructure, determining product visibility and consumer decision-making paths. Retailers need to cultivate "AI synergy" capabilities, or they will lose market connectivity.

Deepening of the Platform Economy

The trend of growth concentration indicates that the platform economy is shifting from pure transaction matching to a "control economy." Platforms leverage data, algorithms, and network effects to master pricing, discovery, and decision-making power. This model may expand to other digital service areas (such as finance, healthcare, and education), constituting long-term structural changes.

Potential of Embedded Finance

To address cost pressures, retailers may accelerate the integration of embedded financial services (such as buy now, pay later; digital wallets; and financialization of loyalty points) to enhance customer stickiness and per-user value.